From energy islands to EU grid: Baltic progress through the lens of the Energy Trilemma Index during 2000–2023

Tomas Karpavicius; Tomas Balezentis

doi:10.63775/6j499032

Authors

Tomas Karpavicius Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2722-3234
Tomas Balezentis Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3906-1711

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63775/6j499032

Keywords:

Energy Trilemma, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Energy Security, Energy Independence

Abstract

The article analyses how Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia’s positions on the Energy Trilemma Index (ETI), which assesses the national-level progress in three areas - energy security, energy justice and environmental sustainability - have evolved over the period 2000-2023. With reference to World Energy Council data, the paper provides a detailed analysis of the dynamics and challenges of the ETI components in the three Baltic States. The results show that Estonia has made the most progress during the period under review and is now among the top ten in the world in terms of ETI. In the meantime, Lithuania and Latvia have also significantly improved their position but face specific challenges such as high levels of energy imports or energy access problems. The study also discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the ETI methodology.

References

Abdullah, F. B., Iqbal, R., Ahmad, S., El-Affendi, M. A., & Kumar, P. (2022). Optimization of multidimensional energy security: an index-based assessment. Energies, 15(11), 3929.

Alola, A. A., Adebayo, T. S., & Olanipekun, I. O. (2023). Examining the energy efficiency and economic growth potential in the world energy trilemma countries. Energies, 16(4), 2036.

Augutis, J., Krikštolaitis, R., Martišauskas, L., Ušpuras, E., & Žutautaitė, I. (2016). Energetinio saugumo tyrimų raida Lietuvoje. Energetika, 62(4). https://lmaleidykla.lt/ojs/index.php/energetika/article/view/3393/2198 (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Bobinaitė, V., & Juozapavičienė, A. (2012). Elektros energijos rinkos kainos savybių tyrimas: Lietuvos atvejis. Business: Theory & Practice, 13(2). https://openurl.ebsco.com/EPDB%3Agcd%3A15%3A14317791/detailv2?sid=ebsco%3Aplink%3Ascholar&id=ebsco%3Agcd%3A78047850&crl=c&link_origin=scholar.google.lt (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Davtyan, V. S., & Khachikyan, S. R. (2022). Energy trilemma as an assessment tool for national energy systems on the example of the Republic of Armenia. RUDN Journal of Economics, 30(2), 139-154.

Davtyan, V., Khachikyan, S., & Valeeva, Y. (2023). An assessment of the sustainability and security of energy systems: an analysis of the energy trilemma index on the example of Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Polityka Energetyczna-Energy Policy Journal, 23-46.

Diawuo, F.A.; Scott, I.J.; Baptista, P.C.; Silva, C.A. (2020). Assessing the costs of contributing to climate change targets in sub-Saharan Africa: The case of the Ghanaian electricity system. Energy Sustain. Dev., 57, 32–47.

Elkhatat, A., & Al-Muhtaseb, S. (2024). Climate Change and Energy Security: A Comparative Analysis of the Role of Energy Policies in Advancing Environmental Sustainability. Energies, 17(13), 3179.

Emblemsvåg, J., & Osterlund, A. (2023). How the Energy Trilemma Can Provide Learning Points Between Countries–the Case for Nuclear. Internation Journal for Nuclear Power, 68(2), 31-42.

Energetinio skurdo matavimas (2017). Available at: https://lsta.lt/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Energetinio-skurdo-rodikliai.pdf . (accessed on 23 April 2025).

European Commission (2020), Your 10-Step Pocket Guide to Composite Indicators & Scoreboards. Available at: https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/10-step-pocket-guide-to-composite-indicators-and-scoreboards.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Filipović, S., Radovanović, M., & Golušin, V. (2018). Macroeconomic and political aspects of energy security–Exploratory data analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 97, 428-435.

Fu, F. Y., Alharthi, M., Bhatti, Z., Sun, L., Rasul, F., Hanif, I., & Iqbal, W. (2021). The dynamic role of energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability in the dilemma of emission reduction and economic growth. Journal of Environmental Management, 280, 111828.

Fu, Y., Lu, Y., Yu, C., & Lai, K. K. (2022). Inter-country comparisons of energy system performance with the energy trilemma index: An ensemble ranking methodology based on the half-quadratic theory. Energy, 261, 125048.

Gasser, P. (2020). A review on energy security indices to compare country performances. Energy Policy, 139, 111339.

Horúcková, M., & Baudassé, T. (2019). Is There a Trilemma of Energy Policy? A Theoretical and Empirical Approach. Economic Research Guardian, 9(1), 2-26.

IEA. (2025). Estonia. Available at: https://www.iea.org/countries/estonia (accessed on 22 April 2025).

IEA. (2025). Latvia. Available at: https://www.iea.org/countries/latvia (accessed on 21 April 2025).

IEA. (2025). Lithuania. Available at: https://www.iea.org/countries/lithuania. (accessed on 22 April 2025).

Juozaitis, J. (2019). „Astravo atominė elektrinė Lietuvos užsienio politikoje: tikslai, priemonės ir ateities perspektyvos “. Lietuvos metinė strateginė apžvalga, 17(1), 293-338. https://scholar.archive.org/work/76weac4wyjbipk4mx6cglnymkq/access/wayback/https://journals.lka.lt/journal/lmsa/article/1357/file/pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Kalis, M. (2024). Energy Trilemma–Concept and Context in the Baltic Sea Region. In The Energy Trilemma in the Baltic Sea Region (pp. 21-43). Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003479178-3/energy-trilemma-concept-context-baltic-sea-region-michael-kalis (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Kang, H. (2022). An analysis of the relationship between energy trilemma and economic growth. Sustainability, 14(7), 3863.

Kelinberga, V. (2024). Green, Affordable, or Secure Energy? Energy Trilemma in the Latvian Strategic Narrative after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In Kalis, M. (2024). Energy Trilemma–Concept and Context in the Baltic Sea Region. In The Energy Trilemma in the Baltic Sea Region (pp. 21-43). Available at: https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003479178-14/green-affordable-secure-energy-energy-trilemma-latvian-strategic-narrative-russia-invasion-ukraine-2022-vineta-kleinberga?context=ubx (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Khan, I., Zakari, A., Dagar, V., & Singh, S. (2022). World energy trilemma and transformative energy developments as determinants of economic growth amid environmental sustainability. Energy Economics, 108, 105884.

Koçaslan, G. (2020). A critique of energy security measurement. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 6(2), 37-51.

Kojala, L., & Keršanskas, V. (2015). „Rusijos agresijos Ukrainoje poveikis Lietuvos nacionalinio saugumo plėtojimui “. Lietuvos metinė strateginė apžvalga, 13(1), 173-191. https://scholar.archive.org/work/kzjo7b2kk5cd7ebotdrtdjtrzy/access/wayback/https://journals.lka.lt/journal/lmsa/article/1308/file/pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Kopeć, S., & Lach, Ł. (2021). Jak mierzyć postępy transformacji energetycznej?. Energetyka Rozproszona, (5-6).

Lietuvos energetikos agentūra (2024). Elektros kainos ES šalyse. Available at: https://www.ena.lt/uploads/elk-palyginimas/Elektros-kainos-Europoje-2024-11P.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Lietuvos energetikos agentūra. (2025). Aktuali AEI statistika. Available at: https://www.ena.lt/aktuali-aei-statistika/ (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Lietuvos laisvosios rinkos institutas (2023). Faktai ir analizės. Available at: https://llri.lt/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/2022-M.-I--VYKIAI-KURIE-PAAIS--KINA-ELEKTROS-KAINU---AUGIMA---LIETUVOJE.pdf (accessed on 22 April 2025).

Lietuvos profesinių sąjungų konfederacija (2025). Energetinis skurdas: 23,7 mln. dirbančiųjų Europoje negali apšildyti savo namų. Available at: https://www.lpsk.lt/2025/02/24/energetinis-skurdas-237-mln-dirbanciuju-europoje-negali-apsildyti-savo-namu/ (accessed on 22 April 2025).

Lietuvos profesinių sąjungų konfederacija, 2025). Energetinis skurdas: 23,7 mln. dirbančiųjų Europoje negali apšildyti savo namų. Available at: https://www.lpsk.lt/2025/02/24/energetinis-skurdas-237-mln-dirbanciuju-europoje-negali-apsildyti-savo-namu/ (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Lietuvos Respublikos elektros energijos ir gamtinių dujų rinkų metinė ataskaita Europos Komisijai, 2011. Available at: https://www.regula.lt/dujos/siteassets/rinkos-stebesenos-ataskaitos/ek-2010.pdf) (accessed on 22 April 2025).

Lietuvos Respublikos energetikos ministerija. 2025. Lietuva, Latvija ir Estija sėkmingai atsijungė nuo Rusijos elektros tinklų. Available at: https://enmin.lrv.lt/lt/naujienos/lietuva-latvija-ir-estija-sekmingai-atsijunge-nuo-rusijos-elektros-tinklu/ (accessed on 20 April 2025).

Liu, H., Khan, I., Zakari, A., & Alharthi, M. (2022). Roles of trilemma in the world energy sector and transition towards sustainable energy: A study of economic growth and the environment. Energy Policy, 170, 113238.

Lowe, P., Abdelhak Chibani, M., Barseghyan, H., Kolodziejczyk, B., Oyewole, O., Diendorfer, C., ... & Smon, I. (2020), World Energy Trilemma Index. Report+ Summary.

Mastepanov A.M., Chigarev B.N. (2020). Using the energy trilemma index to assess energy security. Energeticheskaya politika = Energy Policy, no. 8, pp. 66–83.

Mikalauskiene, A., Streimikiene, D., & Mikalauskas, I. Sustainable Energy Development (2017). International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, Vol. 7, No. 10.

Mohammed, M.S.H.; Alhawsawi, A.; Soliman, A.Y. (2021). An Integrated Approach to the Realization of Saudi Arabia’s Energy Sustainability. Sustainability, 13, 205.

Nacionaline Lietuvos energetikos asociacija (2018). Baltijos šalių energetikos rinkų apžvalga, 2017. Available at: https://nlea.lt/data/public/uploads/2018/12/baltijos-saliu-energetikos-rinku-apzvalga_2017-ii-pusmetis.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Naumenkova, S., Mishchenko, V., & Mishchenko, S. (2022). Key energy indicators for sustainable development goals in Ukraine. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 20(1), 379-395.

Parović, M. M., & Kljajić, M. V. (2022). Improvement of metric for quantification and assessment of the energy justice. Thermal Science, 26(3 Part A), 2225-2237.

Podbregar, I., Šimić, G., Radovanović, M., Filipović, S., & Šprajc, P. (2020). International energy security risk index—Analysis of the methodological settings. Energies, 13(12), 3234.

Ponomarenko, T., Reshneva, E., & Mosquera Urbano, A. P. (2022). Assessment of energy sustainability issues in the andean community: Additional indicators and their interpretation. Energies, 15(3), 1077.

Pranevičienė, B. (2024). Energy security policy in European union and Lithuania. Public Security and Public Order, (36), 148-165. Available at: https://ojs.mruni.eu/ojs/vsvt/article/view/8549 (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Shirazi, M. (2022). Assessing energy trilemma-related policies: the world’s large energy user evidence. Energy Policy, 167, 113082.

Šikšnelytė, I. (2016). Baltijos šalių elektros energijos rinkų atvėrimo poveikio elektros energijos kainoms vertinimas. In Studijos šiuolaikinėje visuomenėje (No. 7 (1), pp. 137-152). Available at: https://www.slk.lt/sites/default/files/studijos_siuolaikineje_visuomeneje_2016.pdf#page=137 (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Sobik, B. (2023). Energy Transition Index and World Energy Trilemma Index as an energy transition’s pace measure for policy-making using the example of Poland. Energy Policy Studies, (1 (12)), 13-20.

Song, M., Latif, M. I., Zhang, J., & Omran, M. (2023). Examining the energy trilemma index and the prospects for clean energy development. Gondwana Research, 122, 11-22.

Šprajc, P., Bjegović, M., & Vasić, B. (2019). Energy security in decision making and governance-Methodological analysis of energy trilemma index. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 114, 109341.

Streimikiene, D. (2020). Ranking of Baltic States on progress towards the main energy security goals of European energy union strategy. Journal of International Studies, 13(4), 24-37.Available at: https://www.jois.eu/files/2_1069_Streimikiene.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Streimikiene, D. (2021). Low carbon energy transition of Baltic states. Montenegrin journal of economics, 17(1), 219-230. Available at: https://mnje.com/sites/mnje.com/files/219-230_-_dalia.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Streimikiene, D. (2023). Energy supply security in Baltic states. Montenegrin journal of economics, 19(3), 125-135. Available at: https://mnje.com/sites/mnje.com/files/currentissue/Komplet%20MNJE%20Vol.%2019,%20No.%203.pdf#page=125 (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Švedas, R. (2017). ES energetinės salos požymiai, grėsmės ir šios problemos sprendimo būdai: Lietuvos atvejo analizė. Lietuvos metinė strateginė apžvalga, 15(1), 183-212. Available at: https://scholar.archive.org/work/cjuzqdflajde3kx7nxe3w3n4iq/access/wayback/https://journals.lka.lt/journal/lmsa/article/1329/file/pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Valstybinė energetikos reguliavimo tarnyba, 2019. Elektros energijos kainos. Available at: https://www.regula.lt/Puslapiai/naujienos/2019-metai/2019-lapkritis/2019-11-28/patvirtinti-2020-m-elektros-energijos-tarifai-buitiniams-vartotojams.aspx (accessed on 23 April 2025).

Valstybinė energetikos reguliavimo tarybas (2025). Didmeninių elektros energijos kainų palyginimas. Available at: https://www.regula.lt/Puslapiai/naujienos/2025-metai/2025-01-13/gruodi-didmenine-elektros-energijos-kaina-isliko-beveik-tokia-pati.aspx (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2011). Policies for the future, 2011. Assessment of country energy and climate policies Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/PUB_wec_2011_assessment_of_energy_and_climate_policies_2011_WEC.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2012). World Energy Trilemma Time to get real – the case for sustainable energy policy, Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/Time-to-get-real-the-case-for-sustainable-energy-policy-VOL-I1.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2013). World Energy Trilemma Time to get real – the case for sustainable energy investment. Available at:https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/images/imported/2013/09/2013-Time-to-get-real-the-case-for-sustainable-energy-investment.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World energy Council (2014). 2014 Energy Trilemma Index rankings and balance scores. Benchmarking the sustainability of national energy systems. Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/images/imported/2014/11/20141105-Index-report.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2015). 2015 Energy Trilemma Index Benchmarking the sustainability of national energy systems. Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/20151030-Index-report-PDF.pdf. (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2016). World energy Trilemma Index, 2016. Available at. https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/Full-report_Energy-Trilemma-Index-2016.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2017). World Energy Trilemma Index, 2017. Availbable at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/Energy-Trilemma-Index-2017-Report.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2019). World energy Trilemma Index, 2018. Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/World-Energy-Trilemma-Index-2018.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2019). World energy Trilemma Index, 2019. Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/WETrilemma_2019_Full_Report_v4_pages.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2020). World energy Trilemma Index, 2020. Available at: https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/reports/main/2020/World%20Energy%20Trilemma%20Index%202020.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2021). World energy Trilemma Index, 2021. Available at: https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/WE_Trilemma_Index_2021.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World Energy Council (2022). World energy Trilemma Index, 2022. Available at: https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/reports/main/2022/World%20Energy%20Trilemma%20Index%202022.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World energy council (2024). World energy trilemma: evolving with resilience and justice. Available at: https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/reports/main/2023/World%20Energy%20Trilemma%20Index%202024.pdf (accessed on 23 April 2025).

World energy council. (2021). Energy trilemma index. Available at: https://www.oliverwyman.de/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/WE-Trilemma-Index-2021.pdf (accessed on 19 April 2025).

World energy council. (2023). Trilemma index. Available at https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/World_Energy_Trilemma_Index_2022.pdf (accessed on 22 April 2025).

Xia, Z., Abbas, Q., Mohsin, M., & Song, G. (2020), “Trilemma among energy - economic and environmental efficiency: can dilemma of EEE address simultaneously in era of COP

Zhao, C., Dong, X., & Dong, K. (2022). Quantifying the energy trilemma in China and assessing its nexus with smart transportation. Smart and Resilient Transportation, 4(2), 78-104.